Showing posts with label united-states. Show all posts
Showing posts with label united-states. Show all posts

Monday, January 13, 2020

Nick Tsagaris Mcdonalds - US lifts China's currency manipulator status as initial trade deal nears


The Trump administration is dropping its designation of China as a currency manipulator in advance of the Wednesday signing of phase one of the US-China trade agreement.

The preliminary pact that the two sides are set to sign this week includes a section that is intended to prevent China from manipulating its currency to gain trade advantages.

The removal of the designation comes five months after the Trump administration branded China a currency manipulator — the first time that any country had been so named since 1994, during the Clinton administration.

While removing China from its currency black list, the Treasury Department does name China as one of 10 countries that require placement on a watch list that will mean their currency practices will be closely monitored.

In addition to China, the countries on that list are Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam.

Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said the administration had dropped China's designation as a currency manipulator because of commitments in the phase one trade agreement that President Donald Trump is to sign with China on Wednesday at the White House.

"China has made enforceable commitments to refrain from competitive devaluation, while promoting transparency and accountability," Mr Mnuchin said in a statement accompanying the currency report.

'A lot of show and very little results'

However, some critics of China's trade practices criticised the administration's decision.

"China is a currency manipulator — that is a fact," said Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader in the Senate.

"When it comes to the President's stance on China, Americans are getting a lot of show and very little results."

The Treasury Department is required to report to Congress twice a year, in April and October, on whether any countries are manipulating their currencies to gain unfair trade advantages against US businesses and workers.

When a country manipulates its currency to keep it artificially low, its goods become comparatively less expensive overseas — and other countries' goods become relatively more expensive.

The new report is technically three months late, apparently because the Trump administration had delayed its release until it had achieved the currency phase one commitments from China.

The initial decision to brand China as a manipulator had come in a surprise announcement in August, reversing a Treasury finding in May that no country was manipulating its currency.

The United States had not put any country on the manipulation blacklist since the Clinton administration branded China a manipulator 26 years ago.

Mr Trump had long accused China of manipulating its currency, even though most independent experts concluded that Beijing had stopped doing so years ago.

The designation was largely symbolic. It obliged the United States to enter into negotiations to resolve the currency problem that could ultimately lead to the imposition of economic sanctions such as higher tariffs on Chinese goods — something the Trump administration was already doing in its tit-for-tat trade war with China.

Trade deal due to be signed on Wednesday

Mr Trump is scheduled to sign the phase one trade agreement on Wednesday, after which administration officials said the text of the deal would be made public.

In a fact sheet on the deal released on December 13, the administration said the agreement would address "unfair currency practices by requiring high-standard commitments to refrain from competitive devaluations and targeting of exchange rates."

The signing of the phase one agreement caps a rocky two years of trade conflict between the two nations, during which punitive tariffs were imposed on tens of billions of dollars of products from each nation.

The battle escalated uncertainty and caused businesses to pull back on their investments, slowing global growth.

It also roiled financial markets with fears that the trade war could become serious enough to push the US economy into a recession.

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Nick Tsagaris Mcdonalds - Could tension between the US and Iran spark World War 3?


Our age is cursed by hyperbole, hysteria and exaggeration. Blame it on social media and the 24/7 news cycle, where one extreme comment follows another.

So it has been with the America-Iran stand off. It has already generated a Twitter hashtag: #WorldWarThree.

Ludicrous? Well, yes if you consider that by any measure Iran is dwarfed by the United States.

Its population is a quarter the size of America's, its economy is barely 2 per cent as large. Its outdated weapons are no match for the most powerful military force the world has ever known.

Yet Hillary Mann Leverett, a former senior US National Security Council official, told me on Al Jazeera this past week that in Iran the United States faces its greatest adversary since World War II.

She's ignoring the nuclear-armed Soviet Union of the Cold War and the current threat of China. But look more closely and she has a point.
Iran is more daunting than Ho Chi Minh's Viet Cong, or the Taliban, Al Qaeda or Islamic State.
Iran has a large military, a nuclear program, it is geographically crucial to the Middle East, it borders the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most crucial choke points — and it is resource rich.

Iran is the world's most dominant Shia Muslim power. Since seizing power in the 1979 revolution, Iran's clerical regime has withstood war, revolt and crippling economic sanctions.

Iran would not capitulate as quickly as Saddam's Iraq or Gaddafi's Libya. Anyway, its leaders are too shrewd to invite an Iraq-style US invasion with American troops rolling down the streets of Tehran.

That's not something that would appeal to America either.

Is America ready for another war?

A glance at history reminds us of the often fraught legacy of post-World War II American military adventurism: beating a retreat from Vietnam; the bodies of American soldiers dragged through Mogadishu's streets; fought to a standstill in Afghanistan (America's longest war); Libya divided with the government teetering at the onslaught of the warlord Khalifa Haftar (backed by Russia, among others).

One by one the dominoes have toppled in the Middle East since the Iraq war: the Arab spring, fallen dictators, the war in Syria, the emergence of Islamic State, millions homeless, countless dead, a flood of refugees.


Amid this upheaval Putin's Russia and Erdogan's Turkey have increased their power and influence. Iran and Saudi Arabia compete for dominance and fight a proxy war in Yemen.

Myriad insurgencies complicate the picture: forming and switching alliances, conquering and losing territory, their reach and ideology spreading far and wide.

In Africa, rebel groups have a foothold in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Somalia, Kenya, Sudan, the Central African Republic.

The likes of Al Shabab have proven resilient and adaptive. Despite heavy attack from African Union troops and American bombing, they can still strike in cities like Mogadishu and Nairobi. In parts of Somalia they operate as a quasi government.


Bigger than bin Laden

The 21st century was only a year old when Osama bin Laden orchestrated the September 11 attacks on the US. We live still in their shadow.

A new decade has begun with the killing of Qassem Soleimani, a man revered in Iran, yet detested elsewhere.

It is a far more significant moment than the killing of bin Laden or IS leader Abu Bakhar al-Baghdadi.
They didn't belong to national governments. Soleimani was crucial to the Iranian regime.
He seized on the post-9/11 upheaval to entrench Iranian power. He orchestrated the type of asymmetrical warfare that has undone America from Vietnam to Afghanistan.

Soleimani built a network of proxies, notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, which now dominates that country's politics. He successfully emulated the Hezbollah model in Syria and Iraq.

Yet Soleimani also saw the emerging backlash: mass protests across Lebanon and Iraq calling for an end to sectarianism and chanting "Iran out".

He made his fatal trip to Baghdad after Iraq's President rejected the nomination of a pro-Iranian candidate for prime minister.

US President Donald Trump decided to press go on Soleimani's execution, and now Iran threatens "severe revenge".

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatens to unleash martyrs on American targets. The Iraqi parliament votes to expel US forces from its land.

And the twitter hashtag #WorldWarThree goes viral.

War weakens strong nations

War weakens nations, even those victorious.
The two world wars ended Great Britain's dominance and handed global leadership to America.
The US has never stopped fighting since.

Its weakness is revealed in its three most recent presidents.

George W Bush started a war in Iraq that set fire to the region.


Barack Obama led from behind and left the world with Islamic State establishing a caliphate, Syria in flames, Russia annexing Crimea amid war with Ukraine, China claiming and militarising the disputed islands of the South China Sea and North Korea a rogue nuclear-armed state.

Now Donald Trump has assassinated — he argues justifiably — an Iranian military leader and national hero and Iran, threatens revenge that would take the world into uncharted territory.

What will WWIII look like?

This first month has already set the course of 2020, a presidential election year in the United States.

World War III? A look around the world tells us we may already be in it.

And we haven't mentioned the war in cyber space, where countries hack each other's military secrets and meddle in elections.
World War III won't look like World War II, just as that war didn't look like World War I.
Conflict with Iran alone would not end the century of American dominance — the US remains the world's biggest economy and by far its most powerful military.

But we haven't entered the post-American world just yet.

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Nick Tsagaris Mcdonalds - China and US trade deal tipped to be signed next week, but not until Donald Trump says so

The Christmas rally on Wall Street has fizzled out despite the US and China edging closer to the formal signing of an initial trade deal as soon as next week.

The South China Morning Post reported that Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He will arrive in Washington this week to sign the trade agreement.
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said a trade pact was likely to be signed next week.
But he said confirmation would come from US President Donald Trump.
Mr Navarro said the 86-page agreement was still being translated and included clauses on protection of intellectual property, forced technology transfers and currency manipulation.
"Basically you need to get it translated into the Chinese and double checked so both versions match," he told Fox News.
These are key issues for the US, which led Mr Trump to impose tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese imports and which saw Beijing retaliate.

In economic news, the US trade deficit narrowed to the lowest since 2016 in November.
The gap between imports and exports dropped by $US3.6 billion to $US63.2 billion.
Imports fell but exports rose.
US stocks fell from record highs on the second last trading day of the year.
The Dow Jones index lost 0.6 per cent, or 183 points, to 28,462.
In economic news, the US trade deficit narrowed to the lowest since 2016 in November.
The gap between imports and exports dropped by $US3.6 billion to $US63.2 billion.
Imports fell but exports rose.
US stocks fell from record highs on the second last trading day of the year.
The Dow Jones index lost 0.6 per cent, or 183 points, to 28,462.